Saul Griffith wrote the book on this.
Did you review his lecture at the Better Buildings Initiative? Please follow this link for a great overview of his analysis before it implodes/disappears in the USGD [US Government Dissolution].
It’s a few years old but still a great reference map for how we can (and are) transforming our grid. About 100 Quads of energy, 38.5 quads being electricity.
One of his main points is that there are a lot of fossil-fuel using machines, perhaps one billion in the USA. And about a million mega-machines (like blast furnaces and mining monsters) that use oil or gas. These all need to be transitioned.
Of note is that about 18 quads in the industrial sector are fossil fuels used to get other fossil fuels into use – so…this could just disappear. The idea being that if we transition away from fossil fuels, about 18-20% of the effort does not need to be replacing fossil fuels with renewable electricity. The “rebuild” is smaller than what is being replaced. Some 5-6 more quads of industrial fossil fuel use does turn into polymers – not actually burned, so there is some room for replacing that with other feedstock, and it’s not renewable energy per se.
It’s just a lot less waste heat and friction losses. The end result is that we could have the same amount of energy utility (not trying to be more frugal, not trying to actually wear more sweaters or drive less) but only use about 40% of the original energy. That is something else, eh?!
So it does seem like our efforts to switch out appliances, vehicles and designing buildings differently will really make a difference. In some economies, leapfrogging past fossil fuel-using equipment straight to electricity will be a big opportunity. I am feeling like I will soon be able to use a toaster again. I will say, eating good fresh bread (untoasted) with local fresh butter or other spreads is quite rewarding in its own way!
Cheers to an acceleration of our energy transition!